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OCTOBER 14,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:46 P.M. ET: 

GRIMES FADING? – From The Hill:  "Senate Democrats announced Tuesday they won’t spend any more money on television in Kentucky, throwing in the towel on their fight to oust Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.  Most polls have shown the race slipping away from nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) for weeks in a contest long considered a top pickup opportunity for Democrats. But with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s (DSCC) decision, the party is shifting almost solely to defense in hopes of protecting its fragile six-seat majority."  Remember, though, that the only poll that counts is the one on election day.  News like this can create overconfidence.  Mitch must still run as if he's 20 points behind.

EBOLA WORRIES – Americans are truly worried about Ebola, especially after administration assurances that it wasn't coming here.  From WaPo:  "Nearly two-thirds of Americans are concerned about a widespread Ebola epidemic in the United States, despite repeated assurances from public officials that the country’s modern health-care and disease-surveillance systems will prevent the type of outbreak ravaging West Africa.  In a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted in recent days, the number of Americans who say the government should be doing more to prevent additional Ebola cases in the United States is almost twice the number who believe the United States is doing all it can to control the spread of the virus.  That includes overwhelming support — 91 percent — in favor of stricter screening for people traveling to this country from West Africa. Such screening began this past weekend at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York and soon will begin at four other international airports in the country."

UNBELIEVABLE – From Howard Kurtz at Fox:  "Even in an era when media outlets sell access to their journalists at conferences and on cruises, a new promotion by The New York Times is truly troubling.  The destination is Iran.   Check out this corporate come-on by the Times:  'Journey 2,500 years back in time to discover the ancient secrets of Persia on this 13-day itinerary incorporating some of most well preserved archaeological sites in the world. Welcome to the once-forbidden land of Iran.'  Wow. You'd never know that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, supports terrorism, poses a mortal threat to Israel, and has been hostile to the United States since its seizure of American hostages back in 1979."  Poor Howard Kurtz.  Doesn't he understand that true "sophisticates" aren't interested in those little details?

IS THIS AMERICA? – From Fox:  "The city of Houston has issued subpoenas demanding a group of pastors turn over any sermons dealing with homosexuality, gender identity or Annise Parker, the city’s first openly lesbian mayor. And those ministers who fail to comply could be held in contempt of court.  'The city’s subpoena of sermons and other pastoral communications is both needless and unprecedented,' Alliance Defending Freedom attorney Christina Holcomb said in a statement. 'The city council and its attorneys are engaging in an inquisition designed to stifle any critique of its actions.'  ADF, a nationally-known law firm specializing in religious liberty cases, is representing five Houston pastors. They filed a motion in Harris County court to stop the subpoenas arguing they are 'overbroad, unduly burdensome, harassing, and vexatious.'"  This is a chilling attack by the city of Houston on traditional rights of free speech and freedom of religion.  Let's see how "civil liberties advocates" respond to the outrage.  Don't hold your breath.

October 14, 2014       Permalink

MISSING – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:   There was a time when Barack Obama was the hottest invitation in the world.  Everyone – well, everyone with a maturity level under 16 – wanted him.  Ah yes, I remember it well. 

But times have changed.  From Breitbart: 

Editor's Note: ABC News published an astonishing admission today, revealing that President Barack Obama has not attended a single public campaign event for a Democratic candidate as the party heads into a white-hot election season.

Just three weeks to go until the midterm elections and with control of the Senate hanging in the balance, candidates are scrambling toward the finish line.

One key figure, however, has been largely absent: President Obama.

President Obama has appeared at zero public campaign events this cycle, opting instead to tap into his fundraising prowess to boost Democratic candidates behind closed-doors.

Obama’s absence on the trail underscores how the president has become a political liability for many candidates. With his approval rating down in the dumps, a personal visit from Obama would likely hurt rather than help his party’s cause in the hotly contested states.

Obama is expected to step-up his public presence on the campaign trail in these final weeks, but likely only in deep blue states. He will attend his first public campaign rally for a candidate this Wednesday when he stumps for Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy.

It’s not unheard of for the president to be scarce in the run-up to the midterms. President George W. Bush headlined 15 rallies in 2006, but they were all in the final weeks, according to Brendan Doherty, professor of political science at the US Naval Academy and author of “The Rise of the President’s Permanent Campaign.”

Not only is the president a persona non grata on the trail, Democratic candidates are going to great lengths to avoid being even remotely associated with him.

COMMENT:  I don't think we've ever seen a president fall this far.  George W. Bush was barely elected in both 2000 and 2004.  His political fall, especially with the left-wing press relentlessly against him, was not all that shocking.  But Obama?  He had been elevated to godlike status, and now most Democratic candidates barely speak his name.  Amazing what a little incompetence and deception can do.

But I'm sure he can have lunch at The New York Times on any day he wishes.

October 14, 2014       Permalink

ENCOURAGEMENT FOR OUR SIDE – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  New polling has some good news for our cause, but there are no runaway victories in store here.  From The Weekly Standard: 

A new set of polls from High Point University and SurveyUSA have good news Republican candidates for Senate in Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. The polls of likely voters in all three swing states found Republicans in good positions against incumbent Democrats with just weeks to go before the election.

In Colorado, likely voters prefer Republican Cory Gardner to Democrat Mark Udall 46 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent saying they're voting for someone else and 5 percent undecided. The poll also found 52 percent disapprove of Udall's job as senator and 54 percent disapprove of Barack Obama's job as president.

For North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis, the High Point poll is the first in more than two months to show him ahead, even if by a few fractions of a point. The survey found 40.4 percent prefer Tillis to incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan, at 39.5 percent. With rounding, the candidates are tied at 40 percent, which is the lowest rating for Hagan (who also gets 46 percent disapproval) since August. Fifty-five percent disapprove of Obama's job.

And in New Hampshire, Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican challenger Scott Brown by just 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent. Shaheen's approval/disapproval numbers are the closest among the three Democrats, with 48 percent disapproving and 47 percent approving of her job. President Obama, meanwhile, has a 54 percent disapproval rating in New Hamsphire.

COMMENT:  We always say that polls are but snapshots in time, and these polls are no exception.  Also, I want to see these results ratified by other pollsters.

The election is three weeks from today.  That's five lifetimes in politics. 

October 14, 2014       Permalink

SICKENING – AT  8:44 A.M. ET:  Has the Islamic State used chemical weapons in its current attempt to take over Iraq?  If so, did that WMD come from Saddam's arsenal?  From Fox: 

Disturbing new photos of ethnic Kurds killed by Islamic State fighters are stoking fears the terrorist army may be using chemical weapons seized from Saddam Hussein’s old arsenals, according to a Middle East watchdog.

The pictures, obtained by the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), show the bodies of Syrian Kurds who appear to have been gassed by ISIS in the besieged Kobani region this July. That fighting came just one month after Islamic State forces surged through the once-notorious Muthanna compound in Iraq, the massive base where Hussein began producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, which he used to kill thousands of Kurds in Halabja in northern Iraq in 1988.

Jonathan Spyer, editor of the MERIA Journal, told FoxNews.com that experts believe the Kurds were slaughtered in July with what “appears to be a case of mustard gas or some kind of blistering agent.”

“It is fairly concerning that, if the pictures are genuine -- and I have no reason to believe they are not -- then this [use of chemical weapons] is looking clearer and clearer,” Spyer said.

The images of the dead Syrian Kurds show bodies with large areas of white, blistered skin apparently having been burned away. Nisan Ahmed, the Kurdish authority health minister, told Spyer that, “burns and white spots on the bodies of the dead [indicated] the use of chemicals which led to death without any visible wounds or external bleeding.”

Experts believe the chemical weapons were used on July 12, in the village of Avidko, close to Kobani, the Kurdish town on the Turkish border that is now the scene of fierce fighting between Kurds and Islamic State forces.

If Islamic State fighters did indeed gain chemical weapons in Muthanna, it would corroborate a 2007 CIA report that confirmed their presence there. That report was cited when, in June, Islamic State fighters captured the Muthanna facility from Iraqi soldiers and allegedly seized a cache of chemical weapons, including more than 2,500 degraded chemical rockets contaminated with deadly mustard gas.

COMMENT:  But wait.  I thought Saddam didn't have any WMD.  Isn't that what we were told?  Is there a can of worms being opened here?

Why am I afraid that this story will disappear quickly?

October 14, 2014       Permalink

IS SHE TRAPPED? – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  The soap opera in Kentucky goes on.  The Democrats dream of knocking off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and their vehicle is one Alison Lundergan Grimes, who is running fairly close to McConnell in a conservative state. 

But Grimes, who does not strike us as the sharpest knife in either the drawer or the dishwasher, has blundered badly in the last few days by refusing to tell Kentuckians if she voted for Barack Obama for president.  Last night Mitch and Alison had their only debate, and Grimes's refusal to say whether she voted for the head of her party was the big issue.  From the Daily Caller: 

Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes has taken heat from the left and right for recently refusing to admit whether she voted for Barack Obama for president.

So it surprised observers when she again dodged the question when pressed during Monday night’s U.S. Senate debate with Republican Mitch McConnell.

“I am not going to compromise a constitutional right provided here in Kentucky in order to curry favor on one or the other side, or for members of the media,” Grimes said when pressed by the moderator on the issue.

Observers note that Grimes’s refusal to say is a result of Obama’s unpopularity in the state.

But asked to explain why she is so reluctant, Grimes replied: “There is no reluctancy. This is a matter of principle. Our constitution grants here in Kentucky the constitutional right for privacy at the ballot box, for a secret ballot. You have that right. Sen. McConnell has that right. Every Kentuckian has the right. And as Secretary of State, the chief election official, I’m tasked with overseeing and making sure we’re enforcing all of our election laws.”

McConnell, the incumbent, shot back: “There’s…no sacred right to not announce how we vote. I voted for Mitt Romney, proudly. I voted for John McCain.”

COMMENT:  Grimes sounds like a fool.  But McConnell symbolizes the Washington insider, and there is an anti-incumbency mood out there, even in Kentucky.  It's hard to assess how much this little episode will cost Grimes, and if it will help seal the deal for Mitch.  But Grimes's repeated refusal is tactically ridiculous.  Just say you voted for Obama, but don't agree with him on a number of things.  That kills the issue.  Everyone knows she voted for him.

Grimes might also learn that "reluctancy" is not a word.  She meant "reluctance."

October 14,  2014     Permalink

OCTOBER 13,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 6:15 P.M. ET: 

ROBERTS GAINS IN KANSAS – In what has become, unexpectedly, a key test in GOP efforts to take the Senate, veteran Republican Senator Pat Roberts is closing the gap with an independent who became a sudden frontrunner.  From The Hill:  "Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) has narrowed independent Greg Orman's lead in the Kansas Senate race according to a new Democratic poll that shows him consolidating the GOP base. The survey, from firm Public Policy Polling, gives Roberts 41 percent support to Orman's 44 percent support, with Libertarian Randall Batson taking 5 percent.  It marks a substantial improvement for Roberts from the last PPP poll, conducted a month ago, which gave Orman a 10-point lead over the senator. That gain for Roberts has come largely from a significant improvement with Republicans."  The base is coming home.  We'll need more to put this one away, but I'm hopeful that Roberts, who is lackluster, will squeeze by on election day.

NICE TO KNOW – From Buzzfeed:  "The extremist Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group admits to and justifies the enslavement of hundreds of Yazidi girls and women as concubines in the fourth issue of its online English publication Dabiq.  In an article titled  'The Revival of Slavery Before the Hour,' ISIS says that enslaving families of the apostates such as the Yazidi and taking their women as concubines or sex slaves is a 'firmly established aspect of the Sharia.'"  We have yet to see "women's rights advocates" on the American left show the slightest interest.  It's scandalous.

OPENING FOR OUR SIDE? – Aside from Republican troubles in Kansas, another unpleasant surprise has been the tightness of the senatorial race in South Dakota, which the GOP candidate, former Governor Mike Rounds, was supposed to have put to bed easily.  But, as in Kansas, an "independent" has upset things.  Former Republican Senator Larry Pressler entered the race as an independent and is now within shooting distance of Rounds.  Pressler is a turncoat who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.  But he's now run into a problem.  From Buzzfeed:  "Following his tenure in the Senate, former Republican Sen. Larry Pressler sat on the board of a brokerage firm, Sky Capital, that defrauded investors of $140 million over an eight-year period, according to federal prosecutors.  Pressler, who is running for Senate in South Dakota as an independent, was on the board of Sky Capital from 2004 until he resigned in 2006, according to court documents and numerous news reports. Pressler served as non-executive director of the board.  Sky Capital was founded by Ross Mandell, who served as chief executive and was sentenced to 12 years in prison in 2012 for conspiracy, securities fraud, wire fraud, and mail fraud.  Pressler was never accused of wrongdoing, but repeatedly vouched for the character of Mandell, who was at the center of the fraud operation."  The revelation can only hurt Pressler, and possibly stop his recent momentum.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS – The news from Iraq gets increasingly grim, but the statements from Washington continue to parrot, if only with caution, the official line.  From The Hill:  "Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno said Monday he is 'somewhat' confident that the Iraqi army can defend Baghdad from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).  'I believe the capability is there to defend Baghdad. ... But we'll have to see what plays out over the coming days,' he told reporters at the Association of the United States Army on Monday.  Defense officials are urging patience with the U.S. strategy against ISIS, even as the group makes gains in western Iraq and on the Syrian border town of Kobani.  ISIS appears to be advancing closer and closer to Baghdad, however, where at least several hundred American troops and civilians are stationed."  We hear about Kobani and Baghdad, but there are other areas of Iraq where ISIS is also advancing.  I can't see a good ending here.

October 13, 2014     Permalink

WELCOME – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  Please take a moment to note that this is Indigenous Peoples Day in Seattle.  My Gawd, it's about time we abolished Columbus Day.  May the idea spread.

As we all know from our educational system, Christopher Columbus was a disoriented sailor who came to these shores on Carnival's "Discover America" Cruise.  It is well known that the indigenous peoples he found here were pressed into service as tour guides and personal trainers.

That's what we do with indigenous peoples.  Deal with it.  Face the truth. 

Imagine what this place would have been like had Columbus not gotten that last-minute half-fare deal, with an outside cabin?  All those forests.  All those wild animals.  No congested cities.  Can you live without Omaha?  Can you?  Do you really need interstate highways?  Or electricity?  Or running water?  For millions of years people lived without.  They had fun.  And I'll bet their TV programs were better.  Indigenous peoples shun reality shows.

I don't see where hospitals are any better than medicine men.  Did you ever hear of a medicine man being sued for malpractice?  Why can't we have a system like that?

So, if you run into someone today who looks even vaguely indigenous, hug him, or her.  Apologize.  Say you regret your ancestors and will take their pictures off your walls. 

And then go back where you came from.  And tell the Muslim immigrants there that you're indigenous.  It'll feel so good.  No more guilt.  Free at last.

October 13, 2014        Permalink

AND GOOD HEALTH TO YOU, TOO – AT 9:47 A.M. ET:  Obamacare marches on, right off a cliff.  The bill, as they say, is in the mail.  From The Politico:   

Obamacare premiums aren’t rising everywhere. They just have a way of finding the states with the biggest Senate races. And that could be very bad timing for Democrats in two of the party’s key contests.

Double-digit rate hikes for individual health insurance plans have become an issue in the Louisiana and Iowa Senate races over the past week, where the Republican candidates are hammering their Democratic opponents for the steep premium increases on the way next year for some customers under the Affordable Care Act.

In Louisiana, Rep. Bill Cassidy called the double-digit increases for some insurers — including Blue Cross Blue Shield of Louisiana — “another hurdle for families and businesses already struggling under the demands of Obamacare” and blamed Democrats for “false promises” that premiums would go down. In Iowa, Senate candidate Joni Ernst used the sharp rate increases for two insurers to blast the Democratic candidate, Rep. Bruce Braley, for supporting the law, charging that “thousands of Iowans are paying for it.”

COMMENT:  Yes, we confess:  In some states premiums are rising at an only average rate, and in a small number of states are actually going down.  But not everyone lives in the "lower rate" states.  Louisiana, Iowa, and Alaska, where major Senate races are going down to the wire, are being hit hard.  Republicans are capitalizing.  And Americans have not yet seen the full brunt of increases under Obamacare.  As we used to say in Brooklyn, wait 'til next year. 

But you can get coupons for free abortions.  I got mine last week.

October 13, 2014       Permalink 

THE KENTUCKY DERBY – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  One of the major Senate races is in Kentucky, where Dems are trying to knock off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who dreams of being Senate majority leader next January.   It's close, and the Dems are writing checks.  From Fox: 

Even as most polls show Mitch McConnell holding the lead against challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, the prospect of knocking off the Senate's top Republican is proving too much for Democrats to resist.

Senate Democrats' campaign arm, in the closing month of the Kentucky race, is making a major bet on the contest. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) recently threw $1.4 million behind their candidate -- this, on top of the half-million reportedly already spent on the race.

The party clearly is hoping for a game change. The two candidates will meet for their only debate on Monday night. But outside of that, the race largely will play out on the airwaves across Kentucky.

The $1.4 million from the DSCC funded an ad buy painting McConnell as a Washington insider who is abandoning Kentucky...

...The race is close, but a Real Clear Politics average of recent polling has McConnell up by 3 points. And although a Bluegrass Poll last week had Grimes edging McConnell by 2 points, a Fox News poll the same week showed McConnell leading 45-41 percent.

Political forecasters still think McConnell has a good shot at keeping his seat. The Rothenberg Political Report lists the race as "lean Republican," which is in line with most other predictions from similar outfits.

COMMENT:  Grimes has hurt herself in the last week by refusing to stay if she voted for Obama.  She cited the "sanctity of the ballot box."  I'm so impressed.

Grimes is benefiting, though, from the anti-incumbent mood, which is hurting candidates of both parties.  We'll look for a nail-biter.  Too close to call at this point.

October 13, 2014       Permalink

THE ABSURD STRATEGY – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  The Islamic State is at the gates of Baghdad.  There is intense fighting this morning in Kobani, on the Syrian-Turkish border.  But what of American strategy?  It does not appear to be working...at all.  From the Washington Free Beacon: 

Chief NBC foreign correspondent Richard Engel said that there were “enormous contradictions in the U.S. strategy” against the Islamic State and that IS (also ISIS or ISIL) was “not degraded at all.”

Engel said the Obama administration’s strategy of suddenly “inspiring” the Iraqi army to fundamentally change was “completely unrealistic.”

“The Iraqi army is in no better shape now than when it collapsed,” Engel told Meet the Press host Chuck Todd. “The new government is not instilling confidence in the people. It’s not instilling confidence in the armed forces. The U.S. spent years and years and billions of dollars to build the Iraqi army only to watch it collapse and hand over so many of its weapons.”

Reporting from Irbil, Engel noted that coalition airstrikes forced IS militants to “shift gears” temporarily to focus on Kurdistan, but now the terrorist army is once again marching toward Baghdad as they were in the beginning of the summer of 2014.

“They do not seem to be degraded at all,” Engel said. “Now ISIS is once again focused on Baghdad. [The airstrike campaign] is having an impact in that it has forced ISIS to change their target somewhat, but it’s certainly not slowing down the group.”

COMMENT:  Many military experts predicted that ISIS would adapt to the air strikes, as military forces always do.  There really is no precise or well-thought-out American strategy for actually defeating ISIS.  Field Marshal of the United States Barack Obama really isn't that interested.  He simply wants to avoid political damage to himself by appearing "tough" right before the midterm elections.  I suspect our whole position will fall apart in Iraq and Syria, and Obama will blame Bush, Cheney, Bibi, and Moses.

October 13,  2014     Permalink